Locating a border in hockey betting can sometimes be tough and the majority of the time that it results in a blown tire and a comprehensive yard sale. There are, though, a few trends that appear to stay accurate year in and year out and I’ve identified one in regard to NHL scoring that I think could be advantageous to TV ratings and, more importantly, to a sportsbook account.
The tendency I’m speaking of is that scoring goes up — way up — when teams get remainder. Last night, the first slate following the all-star game, was a microcosm of that as we saw that a total of 99 goals played in 14 games. That is over seven goals per game, and also an OVER/UNDER record of 11-2-1. That crazy night closed out a month that saw a major growth in scoring which increased the NHL goals per game league moderate to 5.46 and saw teams post a 185-162-31 OVER/UNDER record — a six percent increase in OVERs from the previous months.
A possible reason for this boost in scoring is that the recently instituted bye weeks. The NHL realized that scoring began to dip in January due to the extreme schedule that its players were exposed to and wished to do something to curb the trend. It is a well-established fact that when scoring goes down, so do ratings, and also this bye week is an easy way to acquire players rested up a bit to provide that scoring the tiny boost it needs from the dog days of this NHL season without creating a basic change to the rule book. All these bye weeks will finish at the end of the month and I believe that you will almost immediately see scoring go back down to normal.
A Couple of teams to target on the OVER right now are the Wild, Capitals, Blackhawks, Penguins, Stars, Jets and Blues. Throughout the month of January, those groups combined for a 62-22-8 OVER/UNDER record and should only continue to do damage on the scoresheet in the next month or so. One thing you may see is that every one of these teams come in the Central and Metropolitan divisions. These are both highest-scoring divisions in baseball and it is not near.
One thing to look out for is a change in NHL totals. Books are slow to correct NHL lines and when they do, they probably already missed the tendency or are trying to convince you to bet 1 way or another. Whenever your publication starts throwing out totals of 6 and 6.5, err on the side of caution and possibly avoid those matches completely. Nevertheless, you need to hammer the OVER if you see any of those teams I mentioned previously receive a total of 5 5.5 until the present scoring tendency stops.
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