Finding an edge in baseball gambling can occasionally be tough and most of the time it results in a blown tire plus a comprehensive yard sale. There are, however, a few tendencies that appear to stay accurate year in and year out and I’ve identified one in regard to NHL scoring I believe could be beneficial to TV ratings and, even more importantly, to a sportsbook account.
The trend I’m talking of is that scoring goes up — way up — when teams get rest. Last night, the first slate after the all-star game, was a microcosm of that as we saw a total of 99 goals scored in 14 games. That is over seven goals per game, and an OVER/UNDER record of 11-2-1. That wild night closed out per month that saw a significant increase in scoring which increased the NHL goals per game league moderate to 5.46 and saw teams article a 185-162-31 OVER/UNDER record — a six per cent increase in OVERs from the prior months.
A possible reason for the increase in scoring is that the newly instituted bye weeks. The NHL recognized that scoring started to dive in January due to the extreme schedule that its players were subjected to and wished to do something to curb the trend. It is a well-established fact that if scoring goes , so do evaluations, and this bye week is an easy way to acquire players rested up a bit to provide that scoring the little boost it requires in the dog days of the NHL season without making a fundamental change to the rule book. All these bye weeks will conclude at the end of the month and that I believe that you will almost instantly see scoring go back down to normal.
A Couple of teams to target on the OVER right are the Wild, Capitals, Blackhawks, Penguins, Stars, Jets and Blues. During the month of January, those groups combined for a 62-22-8 OVER/UNDER record and should simply continue to do harm on the scoresheet in another month or so. One thing you may see is that every one of these teams come from the Central and Metropolitan divisions. These are both highest-scoring divisions in hockey and it’s not close.
One thing to look out for is a shift in NHL totals. Novels are slow to correct NHL lines and when they dothey likely already missed the trend or are trying to convince you to bet one way or another. When your publication begins throwing out totals of 6 and 6.5, err on the side of caution and potentially avoid those matches completely. That said, you should hammer the OVER if you see some of the groups I mentioned above receive a total of 5 5.5 until the present scoring tendency stops.
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