Finding an edge in hockey betting can occasionally be tough and the majority of the time it ends in a blown tire plus a comprehensive yard sale. There are, however, a few tendencies that appear to keep true year in and year out and I’ve identified one in regard to NHL scoring I think could be beneficial to TV ratings and, even more importantly, to a sportsbook account.
The trend I’m talking of is that scoring goes up — way up — when teams get remainder. Last night, the first slate following the all-star game, was a microcosm of that as we saw that a total of 99 goals scored in 14 games. That is over seven goals per game, and an OVER/UNDER record of 11-2-1. That wild night closed out per month that saw a significant increase in scoring which increased the NHL goals per match league moderate to 5.46 and watched teams article a 185-162-31 OVER/UNDER record — a six per cent growth in OVERs from the previous months.
A potential reason for this boost in scoring is that the newly instituted bye weeks. The NHL recognized that scoring started to dive in January due to the intense schedule its players were subjected to and wished to do something to curb the trend. It’s a well-established actuality that when scoring goes , so do ratings, and also this bye week is an easy way to get players rested up a little to provide that scoring the little boost it requires in the dog days of the NHL season without creating a basic change to the rule book. All these bye weeks will conclude at the end of the month and I think you will almost instantly see scoring go back down to normal.
A few teams to aim on the OVER right now are the Wild, Capitals, Blackhawks, Penguins, Stars, Jets and Blues. During the month of January, those teams combined for a 62-22-8 OVER/UNDER record and should only continue to do harm on the scoresheet in the next month or so. 1 thing you may see is that all of these teams come from the Central and Metropolitan branches. These are the two highest-scoring branches in hockey and it’s not close.
Something to watch out for is a change in NHL totals. Books are slow to correct NHL lines and if they do, they likely already missed the tendency or are attempting to convince you to bet 1 way or the other. Whenever your publication starts throwing out totals of 6 and 6.5, err on the side of caution and possibly avoid those games completely. That said, you need to hammer the OVER if you find some of those groups I mentioned previously receive a total of 5 5.5 before the current scoring trend stops.
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