UFC on FOX 27 Odds: Souza vs. Brunson 2 Prediction

Written by: on November 25, 2019.

The following UFC event — UFC on Fox 27 — goes down this Saturday (Jan. 27th) and comes with a main-event tip between Ronaldo”Jacare” Souza and Derek Brunson. This is actually the second time both of these middleweights will face off, with Souza winning through knockout in their first go around in 2012. But time is a funny thing, and six years later, it’s Brunson riding the wave of momentum while Souza regroups after a catastrophic loss that cost him a shot at the UFC middleweight title.
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While this isn’t the tastiest primary class the UFC has ever served, it is a captivating contrast in styles, and every MMA event, no matter the hype, produces possible gambling opportunities. Where’s the smart money going for Souza vs Brunson 2?
Stay tuned for a broader look at the card at Best Bets for UFC on Fox 27 this Thursday.
Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza (-160) vs. Derek Brunson (+135)
Jacare Souza combating in Strikeforce.
Jacare Souza fighting in Strikeforce. Photo from LowLight (YouTube) [CC License].
This is your classic battle of styles. Ronaldo Souza (24-5, 17 admissions ) is one of the very best jiu-jitsu professionals to step foot into a UFC Octagon while Derek Brunson (18-5, 10 KOs) loves to put people to sleep with his powerful fists.
The first time both of these combatants met was back in 2012 under the aged Strikeforce banner, and it was actually Souza who was able to put Brunson to sleep with a quick right hook, one of three career knockouts for the Brazilian.
Via GIPHY
Six decades later, Brunson, a former Division II All-American wrestler (and cheerleader!) , has a chance for revenge.
His opponent is one of the most feared grapplers on the planet, and it has stopped 58-percent of his own fights via submission. As he revealed in the first matchup, he is not too shabby in casting leather . He lands a decent 2.28 significant strikes per minute and has a striking accuracy of 44.1-percent.
Souza suffered a devastating loss to Robert Whittaker through head kick at his final fight (April 2017), but he’s also won 10 of his last 12 and has never lost back-to-back conflicts in his career. A win on Saturday would place Souza’s title back into middleweight title film, and time is of the essence for its 38-year-old.
At 34, Derek Brunson’s own career clock is now getting late. He rebounded from back-to-back losses to Whittaker and Anderson Silva with KO wins over Dan Kelly (June 2017) and Lyoto Machida (October 2017), increasing up the middleweight rankings in the procedure. Knocking men out isn’t anything new for its hard-hitting middleweight, who averages 3.2 significant strikes per minute using a striking accuracy of 32.1-percent. He has won 61-percent of his own fights via KO and has produced knockouts in each of his past six victories. Interestingly, he’s never been filed in his career.
The contrasting styles make this a tremendously interesting battle for MMA purists. Normally, it’s wise to lean towards the high level grappler over the energy puncher, but Souza’s age combined with his very last performance suggest a potential Brunson upset. Search for the American to use his speed, power, and five-inch reach advantage (77??? vs 72???) to try to finish things early, while using his elite wrestling to keep the fight standing.
At the moment, Brunson is listed at +135 on MyBookie.ag. It is a good value bet worth getting now.